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Winning Percentage before and after One-and-Done players

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(For understanding why I am posting these blogs, see my first one.)

There are debates every year throughout the college basketball season about which is more valuable for winning: experience or talent. These talks seem to peak in early March when the NCAA starts its annual tournament, March Madness. Backing up a little bit, no fan typically wants to see their team lose; typically, because there are times where a loss would actually help the team. Students enjoy seeing their college being represented on a national level, living vicariously through the team’s success. When a team is winning it creates a lot of pride in the student, most notably this year is Murray State who was the last Division I basketball team to be undefeated. I’m sure most people couldn’t even say what state they are located in, much less that their mascot is a horse and called the Racers.

In a paper by Brandon Fanney it gives the winning percentage for teams that had One-and-Done players on them compared to other teams in the conference before, with, and after the players left college. The One-and-Done schools experienced a 5.12% increase from the year prior to them recruiting the player, and then they dip slightly above their previous win percentage the year after the player leaves. Based off these statistics it appears that One-and-Done players actually help the success of the program not only during, but after they leave as well. However, the winning percentages for the peer schools also increase and decrease accordingly as well, but do not recede as far back as the One-and-Done schools. When these numbers are applied to statistical analysis, it states that the increased winning percentage is not significant.


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Comment by D.Noel on March 19, 2012 at 11:29pm

This accounts for any team that had a player leave after one year.

I know players have always been able to leave after their first year, but this research is looking at the effect of players leaving. Seeing if it in fact is hurting college basketball, if so should college basketball get together with the NBA and get rid of the age requirement or have the players commit to a multi-year scholarship.

The research was not if One-and-done was a rule, something new, or mythical, but the effect of players only attending college for a single year. The media likes to say players staying for only one year is hurting basketball, but I am trying to present information if the players truly are hurting it or not. 

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